Young Gun Rogers Faces Monumental Test - Write That Down - Comcast.net Sports

Chris Young, Comcast.net Sports

Fedor Emelianenko is a rarity.

At 30-1 (one no contest) and equipped with one of the most staunch resumes in mixed martial arts, Emelianenko is widely considered the world’s top heavyweight. Some even go so far as to label him the greatest in MMA history.

Such praise might doom a lesser man. But as expectations and audiences beckon, Fedor doesn’t play the heel, he let’s his fists do the talking.

What’s more refreshing is that even after a decade of dominance across multiple organizations, Emelianenko appears less concerned with the fortune and fame his sport can bring – a luxury as often kind as it is deadly for athletes. But as legendary a champion as Fedor is, there remains a major lack of notoriety with American fight fans. To put it bluntly, he’s about as popular in the States as Hamed Haddadi is in Memphis.

That could all change Saturday night, for better or for worse.

Airing live on CBS (9 p.m. EST) from Chitown’s Sears Centre Arena, “The Last Emperor” will make his U.S. debut against a sizable opponent in undefeated contender Brett “The Grim” Rogers. At 10-0 (9 KOs), and with bricks for hands, the 6-foot-5, 265-pound Minnesota native is a sports writer’s dream. Rogers, a father of three and former Sam’s Club mechanic who dropped the tire iron for full-time work inside cage, is as homegrown as it gets. You won’t find any All-American collegiate wrestling stats or Golden Gloves on the 28-year-old’s Wikipedia page. In fact, you won’t find much at all.

Rogers is exactly as he appears: a  mountain of a man with an incredible punch. After 10 fights, nine of his opponents took their defeats on the chin. The trouble is, only former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski, who Rogers dispatched in a blinding 22 seconds this past June, is worth mentioning.

Rogers’ path to the biggest fight of his young career has been as swift as it has been nameless. That doesn’t make him any less likeable heading into Saturday’s showdown, but it does raise questions.

Let’s start with “The Grim”:

What Exactly Is Rogers’ Game Plan?

Rogers’ strategy with Arlovski, as with every other opponent before him, was straightforward: press the action early and go for the knockout. It’s his MO, and so far, it’s kept him unbeaten. But we all know Emelianenko is no Arlovski. Hopefully Rogers knows it, too.

Rogers holds a five-inch height and a slight reach advantage over Fedor. If used wisely, he should be able to keep the crafty Russian at the end of his punches and set up the KO he’s been training for. That said, giving a versatile fighter like Fedor ample room to work creates space for timed counters, where Fedor can catch Rogers moving in.

Rogers can ill afford to over-pursue with hyper-aggressive punches, which ultimately leave a fighter’s arms fully extended and his chin defenseless. Though Fedor lacks the sheer size and physique to outmuscle Rogers, he’s deceivingly swift for a 230-pounder. What’s more, he reads angles well and can submit you in his sleep.

The counter for such an opponent: a stiff jab. It’s the simplest punch in striking and by far the most effective. Rogers’ best chance of setting up the shot that stones The Emperor cold begins with the jab.

How Will Fedor Fare in an Unforgiving Space?

Short answer: We’ll find out when Fedor steps into the cage for the first time in his career. Ropes give – chain-link fencing gives next to nothing. Fedor could be bullied by the bigger man in an unfamiliar environment. And if the reports are true, the Russian refrained from using a cage while training for this fight. That may come back to haunt him.

But who’s to say how the cage will affect Fedor’s psyche? It may greatly constrict his mobility. It may not play a factor at all. But there’s no doubt that fighting inside the links is a unique situation. When a fighter’s back is pressed against the cage not only is he at the mercy of his opponent’s strikes, but escape routes are lost.

If Rogers can muscle Fedor to the cage, he could bottle him up and zero in on the Russian. But that likely means Rogers will have to meet Fedor in the clinch at some point, which, given the Russian’s steeped Judo skills and superior ground-and-pound, could spell disaster for the big man.

The ground is home to Fedor. For Rogers, at least in this case, it’s kryptonite.

The Pick

The hype machine is yet again at full bore. For many Americans, it will be the first they’ll see of one the sports very best stars. Emelianenko-Rogers has the potential to become the most-watched contest in MMA history, and if the predictions are accurate, the ratings will support that come Sunday morning.

Sure, Rogers can shock the world. He can be the James “Buster” Douglas of mixed martial arts. But he can also be Peter McNeeley.

I love to pull for the underdog … just not when he’s fighting one of MMA’s true masters.

Fedor by TKO.

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Message Edited by ComcastSports on 11-06-2009 05:21 PM