For What It's Worth

A Decade of Housing Growth?

By Anthony Catalano
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:21:21 GMT

If you're a glass-half-full kind of person... or even if glass-half-empty is more your style, there's little question the U.S. housing glass can use some filling. Prices have been in freefall for the past several years, and just about every major metropolitan area has been hit hard on the way down.

The most logical silver lining for the real-estate market -- by default, if for no other reason -- is that you can be fairly certain that over the long haul, starting today, prices should rise. (Let's face it, there isn't a whole lot of room left on the downside.)

But we're all aware of the typical housing mantra. The three most important factors influencing a home's value are, in no particular order:
  1. Location
  2. Location
  3. Location
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So which U.S. cities are poised for the biggest jump over the next decade? Luke Mullins of U.S. News & World Report recently answered that very question -- and the results might just surprise you.

Using an interesting approach and formula that combined employment data, population data, geographic trends and industry trends -- all tied to the key backdrop of household income over the next 10 years -- the top spot went to the Bremerton-Silverdale, Wash. metro area. Mullins offers this take on the winner:
"The neighboring cities ... are located on the Kitsap Peninsula, a slip of land surrounded by more than 300 miles of coastline in lovely Puget Sound. Although the Pacific Northwest greenery is enticing, it's the cities' stable economies that should drive home price gains in the coming years."
Sounds like a Chamber of Commerce type of endorsement. No wonder home prices are expected to rise at an annual rate of 5.22 percent in Bremerton-Silverdale by 2018.

To find out if your hometown made the top 10, cross your fingers and click through to read the full U.S. News article: "The Top 10 Housing Markets for the Next 10 Years."

Do you agree that housing prices will grow over the next 10 years? Which cities do you think will fare the best? Let us know.

Message Edited by Anthony_Catalano on 06-23-2009 03:47 PM

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Anthony, where did you get this stuff?.....nobody wants to live in places like Decatur or "Dulute"......nobody can predict when or how fast the market will go up....speculating real estate is the same as speculating the stock market...The comeback in real estate will be led by 'all the usual suspects' as it always does. California, Florida, etc etc
The baby boomers will be retiring over the next ten years.....are they moving to Delute or Florida?

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:53:58 GMT | bubba24

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The baby boomers have wanted to go to Florida or other sunny climes for 3 years...however they can't sell their cold climate homes, and thus don't have the cash to pluck the lovely retirement areas. So until the housing crunch lets up....those over extended communities in Florida and other southern areas are going to continue to sit empty on the market.

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:08:29 GMT | billysgirl

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Detroit, Michigan Riverfront property.

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:13:57 GMT | peach-pie

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I agree with Bremerton/Silverdale. it is a 45 minute ferry ride to downtown Seattle, so you could retire in the woods near beautiful hood canal but still get you cosmopolitan "fix" when wanted. I lived there in 1985 for 2 years and would drop my crab pot in the sound on my way to work, that's quality of life. The city itself of Bremerton was dumpy back then but there have been a lot of improvements. It's a little known gem in my opinion.

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:46:56 GMT | wit

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how can you say that housing prices can't go lower? sure they can.they were grossly overpriced in the 1st place, inflated by greed, poor lending practices, hype,and rank speculation.

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 21:07:27 GMT | mrmcduff9

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HA HA Ha - those of you who are sitting on the fence thinking housing prices will go lower remember this: Those of us who are thinking of selling are sitting there right beside you. Who do you think will fall off first???

There aren't too many people who will sell their house for less than they paid for it, .... even if they have an eye toward Florida. That isn't greed - it is common sense.

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:53:28 GMT | Icy

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Have you ever been to Decatur, Illinois. What a pit. What were you thinking?

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 21:46:43 GMT | scatolit

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Excuse me...I live in Decatur, Il ...on a private golf course...in a 2000 sq. ft. brick ranch...to the tune of $143,000. I wouldn't qualify that as a "pit".

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:17:06 GMT | ilikedecatur

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I live in Albuquerque, 55 minutes from Santa Fe.

In Santa Fe, there are too many photo opportunities to mention, such as beautiful historical churches and other historical buildings; the old town plaza; the mountains; and the rich hispanic and native american cultures.

Why the heck a picture of who knows what to represent Santa Fe!?!?

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:25:15 GMT | ArchuletaABQ

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I live inCalifornia. I have lived in NJ for 12 yrs and still came back 4 yrs ago. We did not buy at that time because the prices 12/05 were so astronomical. I do feel prices may continue to drop somewhat. If unemployment continues to rise, how can you qualify or buy property without a huge downpayment or a good job? California has always been "outside the box" with prices well above any other state. To say that housing prices are falling compared to the one million for a 3/2bd with carport, no yard is partially correct, but at the current average here in the Napa Valley is $679,000 really a "bargain"? Of course, the weather and scenery here are gorgeous!

Sun, 02 Aug 2009 17:25:30 GMT | fig60

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I've lived in Decatur and now live in South Florida. I'll lay my $ on Florida's and California's coastal and retirement areas leading the charge back to wise housing investments. Last time I checked, Decatur or Duluth hadn't installed their ocean or beaches yet and still hadn't figured out a way around that whole "winter" thing.

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 04:48:32 GMT | chubalicious

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My bet is California. Historically, the market there has been very violatile. However, the market has always rebounded. In the 1960's, I saw a home a few blocks from Santa Monica beach for sale for $18,000. A new condo tract was built in Santa Monica where the condos sold for $32,000 or so. I think they all sold out in an hour. So I say California. However, would I want to live there? No. Unless you have a lot of money and can afford the lifestyle, all you'll end up with is a teeny place. The weather ain't worth bumping elbows with a lot of crazy, mean individuals. Sure, there are nice people, but there are just as many mean individuals you run into. They're all ANGRY! Probably because there are too many people and not enough air to breathe!

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 08:09:14 GMT | cluttercollector

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Duluth has Lake Superior and great beaches.

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 14:44:56 GMT | pksawyer

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So... 9 scenic shots and a picture of a frozen Oregon license plate. Get your heads out of your **bleep**es!

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 14:44:37 GMT | Deanoko

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These are all nice but my bet is on TX. The Houston area is still strong and the Hill Country between Austin and San Antonio is still a good bet. Check out the housing prices, the job markets and the year round weather.

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:49:35 GMT | Deepintheheartof

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Does anybody have any comments on the Colorado Springs area? We are in discussion about that area. We live in Massachusetts and are looking at that area.

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 04:22:57 GMT | bigsoxfan

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Colorado Springs is VERY conservative -- home of Focus on the Family, tons of retired military and a bunch of tight-fisted, anti-tax types who don't understand the concept of "public good." Thus, parks are drying up (literally) and services are being cut. Aside from the occasional blizzard, the weather is pretty nice. Parts are pretty; parts are the worst example of suburban sprawl. Nice alternatives are Manitou Springs and Pueblo, though some locals would certainly argue with the latter.

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 05:05:25 GMT | SadieT

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Would give anything to have a house on the beach in between Santa Monica and San Diego. Can't afford it. It is actually the 2nd most expensive state to live in (Hawaii is #1, for those of you doing your homework). Tired of the rain here in Seattle area. Glad it doesn't snow much. Too bad Atlanta made #3 on "the Most Abandoned Cities" list. That was surprising. Wasn't surprised by Detroit. They should have kept the jobs here.

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 05:35:40 GMT | daman1

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Agreed! real estate is speculative: so, how can anyone tell me what my house is worth (ie tax accessors)? Home owner should pay taxes on what one pays for their house not what others paid for "like" properties in the area. My neighbor was paying taxes on a house the "accessor" told him was worth 400,00.00$. In this market he had to sell it for 200,00.00$ I think the accessor or the town should be financially responsible for the difference.

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 09:16:17 GMT | freeboy

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